November 23, 2005: Continuation...Happy Thanksgiving!

The market took off today (as expected)... happens every year, why not this one? haha.... There's no resistance on these levels that's why the sudden upsurge.. many probably are surprised but I'm not.. I mark and target levels that go back few years... and the charts are telling me 11k is key on Dow while ES has till about 1325 area and COMQ around 2300... so here..... well Friday will be thin, and I do expect a meaningful pullback and consolidation first week of December based on seasonal patterns... Me?? Busy today, and yea we're having a turkey.... yum!!!


Nice setups today with no hesitation as all charts are confirming upward action... Those are the times when one gets aggressive on size, especially on trending days like the ones we're experiencing now.... No counter-trend crapola or outsmarting the market.... this is as straightforward as it gets..... :)

November 22, 2005: FOMC &Continuation

The market has been repeating same intraday pattern lately which is just chop till afternoon then kaboom b/o !! sheesh, this is becoming predictable or what?? What part of a bull rally don't you get??? Interesting observation today is the ADD which gapped lower on open then retraced towards the bands... usually what will happen is a reversal around 1-2pm which is a great short but if that doesn't happen this means strong continuation to the upside... The Dawg and ES are just following path of least resistance especially after the FOMC released some bullish news.... plenty of upside there... also the SOX keeps holding its gap as I mentioned yesterday which is considered a good sign... tomorrow's session should be choppy so no market action till next week... Happy Turkey :)



I changed the screen setup to reflect market breadth on ADD, ADDQ, and VOLD.... there were 2 trades, 1st one was the aggressive one since ADD was still below bands... the 2nd was very rewarding which is a b/o off a continuation flag while ADD was above bands.... easy??? I hope so!! hehehe

November 21, 2005: B/O Continuation

Choppiness then continuation of yesterday's B/O was the name of the game in today's session.... Large Caps as in Dawg hehehe were the best performers for the day.. hey, ER too was very strong.... just the VOLD didn't make any new highs above yesterday's which should tell me that a pullback or downside action should be anticipated tomorrow even if the market opens strong.....Observation I have is the gap on the semis or SOX in particular if it gets filled within next couple of days then we're in trouble... this gap should hold and b/o to the upside for the market to truly rally.... market internals have to improve though for this to happen...



Today's market was very ideal to trade, on the long side that is... the best setup though was #2 where the entire market participated in a B/O.....can't get any easier than this :)

November 18, 2005: Cnsld

The market continued to hold key b/o levels and made aU-turn after a morning down move... The semis in particular were very strong.. One can see that even though futs opened strong, breadth wasn't confirming and indicated that at a very high level open they needed to sustain an up move.. but look where they opened - just below bands... that's a signal to stay out of any longs on futs till breadth confirms... and of course futs reversed course to the downside till noon... very important to observe where breadth is before taking on a trade....



No trades today although all indices were above emas... but breadth was below bands so keeping with the rules and the fact that it's Friday afternoon , no trades would've been ideal.... in case trades are taken they should be followed by tight stops....

November 17, 2005: B/O

Finally! The market broke out and hovered above key resistance levels , especially the 10650 and 1228-30 areas on Dow and ES... Important lessons of the day are the energy buildup as witnessed in breadth with nothing to show for on the indices for the most part of the day except for ER.... Did ER drag this entire market up?? Don't think so, because breadth was indicating the futures were supressed on purpose and something had to give.... The afternoon was just a normal blowoff of all that pressure buildup... look at where VOLD and ADD opened- very high levels!!! I expect continuation over next few days to the upside...



Today's trades were easy - just take your pick! hehe....

November 16, 2005: Chop

The market chopped its way into the session... VOLD reflecting market sentiment for the day on very low volume... worth noting that ES held its 1228-1230 support which is good... Dow, NQ and semis are @ emas... only dog is ER which is bearish at this point... I prefer not to trade when markets are mixed and volume is thin.. So the market pulled back, and I would like to see here some more consolidation (holding) before resumption of uptrend...






Three setups, all on the short side, gave good reward except for the last one which didn't reach its target... reversal bars were awesome today as well and could've provided early entries on the setups....

November 15, 2005: U-Turn

The market reversed course after morning upside action... should be noted that VOLD broke the dowside levels of prior few days which might signal more downside to come.... 2200 on COMPQ still remains strong resistance even though Dow broke out beyond 10650 level and ES beyond 1230....I'm watching the tri b/o pattern on semis where it b/o to the upside then reversed below pivot... it it consolidates below the pivot then it means more downside in trend mode!!...I should also highlight that there's a H&S pattern developing on ES daily where the LS and H are there and it implies a lower market action to develop the RS...


Today was particularly tricky and required patience aka sticking to rules!! only 1 trade on ER which is continuation would've taken place... other than that there were plenty of 1-bar reversal trades that offered plenty.... The YM could've been traded on the long and short side per the chart...

November 14, 2005: Cnsld

The market was almost on hold today with the exception of ER which floated a little lower... all other indices just consolidated at the highs of last week... this means cotinuation but I'm more of inclined to get a pullback here, especially that the COMPQ is @2200 which is a critical resistance level....








Today was very choppy although the charts point downward... all setups on ER didn't make their targets and were stopped out... the only ones that worked out were the reversal-bar setups.... notice first trade the stop was at the ema and not at the hi of the cnsld per the rules....

November 11, 2005: Mixed

Market was mixed in today's session and that in itself should be reason enough to stay out of the market. Dow broke the 10650 on very thin volume. ES & AB chopped and had late day breaks. NQ and semis reversed to the downside.... sheesh... That's why I don't like Friday afternoons.... Would be interesting to see whether the indices will pull back here....





Not much to talk about in terms of setups... YM was definitely much better to trade that ER.

November 10, 2005: B/O

As mentioned in last post, b/o was upon us and it sure did take place... now ES is out of the woods and should challenge prior highs around 1250...Dow is stopped for the day at critical level 10650 and once past that I expect all-time highs (say what???)... I'd like to see a follow-thru to the upside to take the markets past these resistance levels and maybe a pullback to these levels would be good for continuation.... Only thing I didn't like is volume... still low despite the upward action..


Today was tricky and required plenty of patience... even though ER bottomed early in the day and kept going up it was still below 50ma, so was breadth... so no longs despite the cnsld b/o... only longs taken were late in the day.... there was a setup but didn't give much reward (10ticks)...I like to have around 20 ticks and more as target the 2nd setup didn't reach its target but one should've been ok if stuck to rules... playing it safe is name of game :)... the reason I post YM is that trades can be taken there w/same rules that apply to ER, so this session was perfect to trade the long side on YM instead of ER....



I'm posting this chart of NAZ weekly to show the support on short and intermediate-term basis then the b/o to the upside.... those emas, once one scrolls back in time, have proved to provide an accurate direction in terms of the three timeframes....this market is waiting to explode!!

November 9, 2005: b/o (not quite)

SOX broke out of 4-day cnsld as expected and made new highs...other than that the market hit the resistance levels I highlighted yesterday and it's clear that 1230 and 10650 on ES and Dow are the levels to beat! Daily on NQ looks like it's about to b/o so I expect that to happen within next couple of sessions.







2 nice trades, first one is a b/o and 2nd is continuation... there was a reversal bar entry towards end of day that was worth 7-8 ticks... yeeahhaww... :P

November 8, 2005: Chop

Nothing much to talk about ...basically the market chopped and once again breadth kept one from going long... at least the guessing is taken out of it... Only major observation is the 4-day consolidation SOX is displaying after gap up... this is exactly like 2001/02 when 4 days of gap up resulted in resolution on 5th day... so I expect a b/o or breakdown in following session... Indices are still at resistance except the dow pulling back from the 10600/650 area...On the daily a gap down would make an "island" which would be very bearish...



There was only 1 trade and it didn't reach its target... but the reversal entries all worked out very well for nice scalps.... notice the YM didn't have any entries at all.... so on chop days it's possible to have nice entries on reversal bars(??) something to watch in the future...