Nov. 13, 2006: Up

The market had one large move in the morning and that was about it for the rest of the day...yaaaawwwnnnn! Somebody wake me up when they're done with this crap hehe...

Ok, so I expected a retracement to the upside and that took place. Now what? Well, I'm looking at the indixes for clues and the ony ones that provide any clues are Trans, Dow, and Sox. Tuesday should witness a definitive move either to the upside or downside (duh!) with very little room for consolidation. The news releases might do the trick. COMPX is up against 2400 level so is the Dow with 12200 and those aren't easy levels to take out. I'm favoring the short scenario at this point. Will confirm when the market opens.

Nov. 10, 2006: Cnsld

The market consolidated the entire day and the indices behaved differently. YM &ES had lower lows while NQ & QB had higher lows going into the latter part of the session. I expected some strength then weakness to take place but the opposite happened. One could've stayed on the sidelines or taking longs based on breadth.

Looking at the patterns I do see some strength and more consolidation taking place as marked on the longer tf charts. Monday mornings are the trickiest along w/Friday afternoons so no trades till the afternoon session. By looking at the Dow chart there's a good possibility for a retracement to the upside but I don't think it'll exceed the recent hi >12200 level.

Nov. 9, 2006: TD (Down)

As mentioned in yesterday's entry I expected the market to retrace to the downside and that's what took place. It was a straightforward TD across the board. Market breadth, especially VOLD, didn't indicate such reaction. Nevertheless, the patterns on them were clearly on the -ve side. All indexes were trading below their intraday pivots which meant no long trades.

I was out and didn't trade today, but the 'woulda shoulda coulda' trade setup would've been a short on the second lower hi hump. This is one of the easiest setups to recognize and execute.

The charts (especially BKX) indicate more weakness in the upcoming session. I wouldn't be surprised if there was consolidation early on then continuation to the downside. The Fed are speaking later on so that will factor in afternoon action. No trading for me on Fri. afternoons.

Nov. 8, 2006: Gap down & Up

The market sold off in globex but rebounded and chopped during day before a late b/o. I expected a consolidation and the action resets price levels to '0' compared to previous session. It should be noted that prices held up well in the face of a Dems victory and that says something. What does it say? No idea lol....

As far as trade setups I took the short around noon time and left afterwards so the b/o later on was a good opportunity missed: was a nice tri b/o accompanied by breadth. I have misjudged the pattern on Sox and it did hold support vs. tanking further down as I suspected.

As for tomorrow's session, I expect some retracement to the downside. By looking at the Dow & Sox, and ER for that matter one would expect a solid continuation move to the upside. Maybe.. but some resistance should be expected at these levels given the recent runup. Will re-evaluate based on the reports released before morning session.

Nov. 7, 2006: Smoke and mirrors

Ok, I'm back after a long summer (& Fall) break.

The market behaved like I expected - yesterday's action was all smoke and mirrors that one could smell it few miles away! Today I walked in with a clear short bias (Thanks J for confirming my bias :) ). Yes, early morning runup threw me off a bit but after looking at breadth and my newly minted (highly secretive) shem-indicator hehe confidence grew that this upmove was manufactured. Shorts were entered at multiple points and worked out well. A long trade was thrown in there for good measure (I call'em airhead trades) and didn't work out of course. Lesson learned: 'Stick to the f***** plan! Thanks you.'

Pls. note that we've had a 'V' on the Dow which revisited previous hi. What makes Vs bearish is the speed by which the second leg accended. Any time, it runs up hard to revisit a cautionary flag should be raised.

Ok, so it's elections time back home and the Dems might be taking over. As for impact on market, it usually tanks when them Dems move in da house. I'm going for a consolidation on Wed. with fireworks on Thurs. & Fri. since there're major news coming out on both days.