Saturday, March 05, 2005

Weekly Rehab!

Ok, I've looked over some charts trying to gauge fundamentals. Yep, so many things conspiring against a healthy recovery in the intermediate and long term:

Oil is up again and looks like rallying w/possible arc/blowoff top!
Commdities Up: Grains like Soybeans (they make sauce out of this?)... inflation implication!
Dollah forming flag on daily and below its ema on weekly(down).
Euro and Gold opposite of dollah and looking for a blowoff/arc (Up).
Bonds and notes don't look too hot at all and remind of the double hump on Naz back in 2000! Not pretty at all once these yields start going up. Implication? Housing market bubble will burst!
Add to that Naz & Semis divergence with Dow and S&P...meaning that at the moment cyclicals are best game in town, and what happens once those take center stage? Not bullish for sure...

Some research findings for intraday trading:
4-bar b/o is as good as 6 b/o on AB?? Setup has to point to a 6bar b/o?? (e.g. not 4 bars making higher highs/lows)...some work to do here! The 2bar b/o on Addq is v. reliable so is the 4bar b/o. The 90m range is something I'd like to track for a while, but looks worthwhile. 7bar hi/low on Vold is just a function of how the market works. Assumption is by lunch volume will eventually tapper off, so the hi/low of first 7bars need to be watched for continuation. Also on Vold, the threshold of +-150-200 seems to be the b/o level. Any b/o out of this threshold seems to indicate strength and vice versa: if Vold is contained within these boundaries then look for consolidation.

I'm still working on 1br exits. I also like Jil's idea that stop needs to be moved equal to move in favor of trade e.g. if price moves up 7ticks then stop should be moved up by 7ticks and so forth.....

Decided to trade the Euro, and last 2 weeks I kicked off a new journey. For next 6 months I'll focus on researching it before making any live trades. Have no doubt the keys to trading it will be found. If there's something that has developed from this relative short journey, it had to be patience.
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Ok, on w/some weekend blah (boredom?):
Account drawdowns, ay yay yay... very delicate topic... bottom line is my view over the years has changed regarding this. Nu me says that a drawdown should be viewed as a healthy account pullback - I don't mind it as long as it doesn't develop into a pattern and that it's not steep. Case closed I guess?

More late morning blah:
Why keep sticking to what I know? So many methods but I only choose the ones that suit my own way of thinking and that complement each other. Gann, fibs come to mind as a great combination. Ditto Emas and market breadth. FL is about only thing that comes close to AB system and I leave it to dbq and J to lemme know if it's confirming it. Also learned not to listen to anyone but observe if it makes sense to me first. One of the keys to market mastery is understanding how things work well "together". Resisting the temptation of other methods gets easier. My belief is unchanged: Unison is the way to go!

Ok, till next rehab......
Quote from John47:

I wasn't thinking of that woodies type BS...or whatever...

Ahhhh woodie's chatroom...good old memories...

Woodie: Yup, thats a CCI signal...look at it go.
Fan: Woodie, the market just reversed on us. >_<
Woodie: Erm...I got out with a 2 tick profit before the reversal!
Fan: T_T

Woodie: Look, another signal!
Fan: Woodie, what did I do wrong, the market reversed again.
Woodie: Remove all indicators, just use the CCI...see I got out with 1 tick profit before it reversed!
Fan: T_T

Fan: Thats a signal Woodie.
Woodie:
Fan: Thats a signal Woodie.
Woodie:
Fan: WOODIE!!! THATS A SIGNAL!!
Woodie:
*Market goes in favor of the signal*
Woodie: Yep, that was a signal back there, I'm already in.
Fan: T_T

Fan: I missed 1 signal and cut losses on 2 so far.
Woodie: I declare 3 winners out of 3 today for Woodie's CCI!!!
Fan: T_T

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