April 1, 2005: TD

After close analysis:

Market retraced entire Wednesday's upmove. Nothing changed - it's still a down market. After jobs report and a fake move to the upside in the morning, the market took a nosedive and consolidated for the rest of the day at the bottom range. It's clear that the Semis have H&S pattern in addition to horizontal channel, so a breakout is anticipated. With NQ's dbl hump and the direction is most likely to the downside. Monday should be interesting and the morning won't be traded in case of any fake move especially with breadth divergence.

Market breadth although -ve all day, didn't match the downmove on futs. Vold recorded a low @585 while the futs tested their lows of the year. Addq was the weakest of the 3, while Add opened higher but soon spent rest of day trading below yesterday's range. Breadth is something to watch for on Monday for clues.

Futures got slammed to the downside after an early morning fake upside move. AB almost tested the 605 level while ES also revisited the 1170 area which is close to 1160-65 area. NQ also spent the day below its ema. All 3 had TD day. ES200R is in bearish zone.

Indices have the clearest patterns to trade. Sox/Smh have formed a clear H&S pattern also a horizontal channel which means a continuation pattern - it should break to the downside so something to watch closely on Monday. The Dow retraced the knee-jerk reaction couple of days ago and back to the 10400 level for a retest.

Overall neutral day!